"The Tricks of the Trade" Seminar
"Advice for Beginners"
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I would like to offer some advice for those who are starting out in the futures trading game. Many may have traded equities already and are thinking of trying their hand at futures. Alternatively, you may have heard about the large potential gains that can be made trading futures and you want to know more. Anyway, here is some advice for those that are starting out that I hope is useful.
Leverage is a Double-Edged Sword
The idea of having control over large amounts of equity with little
money down as deposit is very exciting and can lead one to start imagining
great quantities of wealth that is just about to be yours for the taking.
Well, just remember that you make a lot of money if a trade goes in your
favour but you lose a lot if it goes against you! It is very much a double
edged sword and I would urge caution when you first start out.
Trade Small Amounts with Adequate Capitalisation
When you first start out you will be relatively inexperienced and will
naturally enough make mistakes. It is important that these mistakes don't
take such a large amount out of your trading equity that you are either
too broke or dispirited to want to continue. This means that you should
trade very small amounts when you start out and that you should have a
reasonably large amount of starting capital so that a few early losses
don't set you back too large a percentage of your account. A friend of
mine who is a professional money manager once said to me that one should
always trade such as small amount that it almost doesn't seem worth it.
That way one is not paniced into making foolish decisions. A professional
trader might typically risk less than 1% of equity on any given trade.
That way you can afford to get it wrong many times without going bust.
There is no substitute for experience
Basically you are going to have to learn how to trade successfully,
so stick with it! It is said that about 90% of all private futures traders
stop trading within a year. This is either because they get dispirited
with not succeeding or because they've lost too much money. If you want
to succeed you have to stay around long enough to learn how to do it!.
This is why the previous paragraph on trading small amounts is so important:
because you need to survive long enough to learn how to succeed.
Futures Trading is Like Natural Selection: Survival of the Best
Traders!
Since futures trading is a zero sum game (before costs such as commissions
are considered), those that win do so at the expense of those that lose.
Those that lose eventually drop out of the game to be replaced by newcomers
to the game. This means the bad traders are weeded out and only the good
ones tend to survive and flourish. This means that when you join the game
you are basically playing against a few top class traders who have been
around long enough to learn how to succeed. This is why the percentage
of failure in futures trading is so high, rather than being more of a 50-50
proposition.
Paper Trading or Simulated Brokerage
Before starting it is worth while spending some time paper trading.
That is, deciding when to buy and sell and making a note of the profit
or loss on paper rather than actually doing the trade with a broker. You
will need to be very disciplined in order for it to be realistic. It is
no good saying "Oh well if I had stayed around watching the markets
I would have bought there" etc. You may well decide that you will
not start with real money until you are doing well enough on paper. A word
of warning, it is far easier to do it on paper than for real. When there
is real money at stake there is a whole new dimension to the game. One
way of making things more realistic is to use a simulated brokerage service
where you actually phone in your orders to a broker who will give you a
realistic fill price and keep track of your accounts for you. That way
there's no cheating. See for example AudiTrack
whom I can recommend.
Read Books
There are no end of books on trading for you to read. Many of them
are useless but there are some very good ones out there. See for example
the book reviews and the publications
pages.
Don't Believe the Hype
There is a whole industry out there making money from selling traders
systems, books, tapes etc for what can be very large amounts of money indeed.
In all such cases you have to ask yourself, "if it is really that
good then why are they selling it?". It is not for altruistic reasons
but because it is far easier to make money selling systems then trading
them. Having said that there are some genuine and honest vendors out there.
However, there is never going to be any substitute for experince and there
is no easy way to make money trading.Caveat Emptor